Tuesday, June 7, 2022

2022 Mountains 2 Beach Marathon Training Summary

 I signed up for M2B on Dec 7th 2021, a month after the Golden Gate Half. First thing in my mind is to choose a training plan. I was a novice when it comes to marathon training so did a lot of research and reading between Pfitzinger (AM), Hansons, Daniels, Hal Hidgon marathon plans. I like Pfitzinger plan mostly because it is very popular on running forum like r/AdvancedRunning or letsrun.com. Also because I like its format. Daniel's plan on the other hand is very loose in that it only describes 2 quality workouts and leave the rest to you. 

Later I realized that AM is not really for beginners, even the 18 week/55 miles version. Never ran a full marathon before, I foolishly picked the 18 weeks/70 miles plan. The rationale was my base pre-Golden Gate is 50 mile per week (base is defined as your 3-month average weekly mileage). I figured I could start ramping up my volume (mostly easy miles) to 50-60ish starting mid-Nov. By the time the training plan starts in late January, I will have ~10 weeks of ave 55mpw, a good enough base to embark on a 70-peak-mile plan. Note, typically in any training plan, the mileage quoted refers to the peak mileage hit during the plan, not the average mileage. The pre-requisite for any plan is that the mileage for the first week of the plan should be at your base level, i.e. you should be able to finish the first week's training relatively comfortably. That's the why we need to first build the base specifically for the plan you chose. 

After picking the plan, I started scheduling the training, aka putting the daily training on calendar. I counted from the race day and back to determine when the training starts. For me, the M2B 5/29 means the 18 week plan starts on Jan 23rd. The next task is to determine my training paces. For the AM plan, there are primarily 5 paces: general aerobic (easy), long run and medium long run, recovery, lactate threshold, and VO2Max interval. GA/easy pace is about 15-25% slower than the marathon pace (MP), LR/ML 10-20% slower than MP; LT is about your half marathon pace (HMP); and interval at your 5k pace. Recovery usually should be based on feel not pace. Then how do I determine my MP? I used my last Half Marathon Race result (1:31 from Golden Gate), entered it to the VDOT calculator, and it spit out MP is about 7:15 min/mile. Keep in mind the training MP is not your goal MP. It just reflects your current level of fitness. We should train at the intensity determined by our current fitness, not our target fitness. So for a 7:15 MP, my easy run is around 9 min/mile, my LR/ML pace is around 8:30 min/mile, and my LT pace is my HMP pace 6:55. Through training the fitness level improves and we should re-assess your fitness level with races/time-trials, and the training paces evolve accordingly.

As mentioned earlier, the AM plan is pretty aggressive and I need to make some modifications to "dumb" it down to my level. For example, a key characteristics of the AM plan is the medium long run (11-15 miles) in the mid-week, often time the day after an LT workout (the idea is to start the ML with pre-fatigued fast-twitch fibers). Some weeks there are two ML separated by a day. This is quite tough both logistically and physically. So I decided, as a novice, I will run those MLs mostly at easy pace. And my easy pace, instead of following the 9 min recommendation, I will follow my heart rate. My easy heart rate is typically between 130-140 bpm. In fact as shown later, most of my easy runs are on the easier end of the zone, ~130-135 bpm. My recovery runs are done at very relaxed HR, which is below 125 in general but most often below 120 bpm. So for easy/ML/recovery runs, which make up bulk of the training mileage, my effort is about 120-130 bpm. This later on proves to be key for injury prevention. 

To maintain the quality of the training, I did a second modification to the plan. Since I slow down the ML and easy runs quite a bit, to maintain the quality of the training, I added intensity to the weekend long runs. Now this is risky and I have to admit I didn't quite know what I was doing. In AM's long runs, the pace is supposed to be 10-20% shy of your MP. You are supposed to start the long run at the slow end and finish at the fast end of the pace bracket. I started my long runs with easy/slow pace, and after 3-4 miles I move to a steady/moderate pace, which is around 7:30. At the last 6 miles, I threw in a tempo section at HMP. Later on I knew adding speed to the end of a long run could be risky and could cause injury. But have to say it effectively combines two workouts into one. So every week I get 3 workouts: an LT run, a long run and the tempo within the LR. You can see why I slow down all my easy and ML runs in order to prepare for the weekend's long. There are only two MP runs scheduled in the plan (15 w/12MP and 17 w/14MP). I added two more 20 w/14MP. Again this is just an example of how I modified the weekend long run to meet my intention. I also cut out the 22 mile long run and replace that with harder effort in it. I did not think 22-mile easy-moderate pace is as helpful as a 20 miler with workout mixed in it, although the former one is safer.

The third modification I made to the AM plan is I dropped most of the tune-up races. The plan called for 3-4 8k-15k tuned up race at about 2 months out from the race day. The idea is to sharpen your speed. But again out of the goal to minimize injury, I dropped most of them but added a tuned-up half-marathon race (Modesto Half) on 3/27, roughly about half way of the plan. The HM race proved to be a good step: it gives me an update on my fitness so that I can re-assess my MP and all my training paces; and it injected confidence to my training. I ran a 1:23 in that HM race (8-min PR from the last HM 4 months ago). 

The last modification I made to the plan is I replaced the last two interval sessions with LTs. The last two intervals, scheduled around 4 and 2 weeks out from the race, are 6x1200m and 3x1600m at 5k pace. When I ran an earlier version of this workout, 6x1000m@5KP, I felt very tired and even a bit injured after that. So I knew that was about my limit. Considering at this phase of the training, avoiding injury is the key so I promptly replaced them with 6-mile @LT and 3-mile @LT workouts. 

 Now let's talk about the data analytics (graphs). 

Figure 1 shows my MPW profile. The entire training averages 62 miles per week, with three weeks touched 70 mpw. Besides the tapering phase, the plan has three major cycles: endurance, endurance + Lactate threshold and race preparation. In each cycle, it features a gradual ramp of volume to a peak before a cut back/recovery week. My experience the cut back week really helps, especially after some tough peak sessions. 



Figure 2 and 3 show the histogram of running paces and distance. For paces, I spent most of my time in two zones: 7-9 mins/mile and 10-12 mins/mile. Those 7-9 min miles are mostly my L/ML/Easy runs whereas the 10-12 min miles are recovery miles. I avoided 9-10 mins because it is neither easy enough for recovery, nor fast enough for aerobic. When it comes to distance, bulk of my miles are in 4-10 miles. Those are my recovery and easy runs. Then second most type of run is the ML. I only ran 6 twenty milers and all of them have either 6 miles of LT in the end or 12-14 MP. 





The next three graphs are about my heart rate. I rely heavily on heart rate instead of pace to gauge training effort. From Figure 4 we can see the heart rate is highly correlated with pace, provided that the running condition, such as temperature, humidity and elevation gain, is consistent. Figure 5 shows my intensity vs distance. As I mentioned earlier, for most of my EZ/RC/ML I ran mostly at low heart rate whereas in 16+ miles long runs I tend to run fast. From Figure 6 you can see the distribution of my training effort, and bulk of them are low heart rate running of <140 bpm.

Some words about my training progression. I started the training on Jan 23rd with a MP of 7:15 and HMP of 6:55. But actually not long after the training start, I kept searching for my lactate threshold based on heart rate, and at around 170-175 I found that I could run 6:20 or less in mid Feb. So I adjusted my LT pace to sub 6:20, and long run final miles to 6:40. For LT runs, the AM plan only calls for 4LT, 4LT, 5LT, 5LT, 6LT and 7LT within the entire 18 weeks. I added a 5LT, 6LT and 3LT at the end. The paces for the LTs runs are: 6:16 (4 LT), 6:12 (4 LT), 6:10 (5 LT), 6:15 (6 LT), 6:18 (7 LT), 6:12 (6 LT), 6:20 (5 LT sick), 6:10 (3 LT). From the LT paces that I can hold for 5-6 miles, I can roughly estimate my HMP is +7-8s, which is 6:20-6:22, and my goal MP is HMP + 15 sec = 6:35 - 6:37. Considering these paces are for a straight flat course with perfect weather, the actual MP at M2B is then targeted to be 6:40 - 6:45. 

Some final words on my MP long runs. In AM program, there are only two MP long runs: 15 w/12MP and 17 w/14MP. They were planned on 10 and 6 weeks out from the race. Somehow I did not feel secure with only two MP long runs, so I added two more: a 20 w/14MP in 8 weeks out, and 21 w/14MP in 4 weeks out (this one is my peak long). The progression of my MP paces: 15 w/12M (6:45), 20 w/14M (6:37), 17 w/14M (6:32), and the last 21 w/14M (6:36). This proves my earlier estimation from LT pace is correct and also the effect of the training is evident. 

What I would change or keep for the next training cycle:

1. I really like the medium long run mid-week although it is a bitch to schedule them in. I will definitely keep them and maybe run them a tad faster (may be progression style from easy to steady);

2. I will see if I can finish all the VO2Max workouts. 

3. For MP, I will try to mix them in most long runs instead of just relying on one or two key long runs. But I will mix them in in an interval style. Daniels' running formula has a lot of good M/T workout templates that I can use.

4. For easy and recovery runs, I like what I am doing today. In fact, with workouts and LR being hard, I don't mind dropping the so-called general aerobic or easy runs altogether, and running all of them in RC effort. And I don't mind at all running RC runs in 11 min pace or even slower. The purpose for those runs is to promote blood circulation and we should feel better after the runs, not worse. 

5. For LTs, AM's plan looks good and it works for me. 

 







Sunday, March 6, 2022

2022 乌俄形式分析-2

 上次发文分析了俄罗斯是否会侵略乌克兰以及北约到底会不会参战。不幸被言中。

这次再分析一下这个冲突会以什么方式结束。

在分析战争的结果前需要先列出几个基本的已知量,然后按逻辑推算未知的可能:

1. 美国不会正面参战。因为这意味着核武战争和世界末日;

2. 俄罗斯不会进攻北约国家。理由同1;

3. 中国不会直接参战,因为中国没有任何利益。

以上这三条基本上100%可以肯定的。我能看得见的东西,普京和北约的领导早就算到了。所以最自然的下一步发展,就是乌克兰基辅政府会失手,Zelensky要么流亡海外,要么被判死刑。接下来俄罗斯到底是直接把乌克兰纳入自己版图,还是安插个代理人政权呢?这个有点难。按道理这个年代不太流行直接进略改变国界这种逆时代又高成本的政治行为的。但是普京是个不一般的政治家。他骨子里一直认为乌克兰是个伪国家。历史上并没有乌克兰作为主权国家存在过,只有罗斯文化作为斯拉夫的一个分支而已。在他眼里,乌克兰就是台湾一样,是要被收回的。另外上一篇文章分析过,乌克兰的地理位置决定了俄罗斯必须要紧紧控制的。如果安插代理人政权,还是有可能被推翻或者颠覆。夜场梦多。所以综上分析,我觉得俄罗斯是会把乌克兰归入自己的版图。

那这就是完了吗?一个核武器国家就可以为所欲为把邻国说吞就吞吗?把乌克兰打下来没有什么悬念,问题是俄罗斯能守得住吗?这些问题都是克里姆林宫决策者在选择战争前都仔细盘算过的。接下来让我来分析这个问题。

首先俄罗斯马上要面临的是全球的孤立和制裁。孤立普京是不怕的。那么制裁呢?2014年的制裁和油价暴跌并没有把俄罗斯搞死。为什么呢?原因是中国还有欧洲在背后撑腰。欧洲还离不开俄罗斯的油气。中国还有很多长期合同。我也预计普京在计划攻打之前肯定和庆丰已经达成协议。具体条件以后分析。但是离不开台湾和能源。

但是这次和2014年有所不同。这次是一个赤裸裸没有任何理由的侵略行为。在道义法理上说不过去。所以没有国家敢公开支持一个侵略国的,否则它也会被列为同盟而被制裁。这次兔子在联合国就是否谴责和制裁俄国问题上投了弃权票,被问及为什么的时候也是支支吾吾的。所以公开的经济往来和合同应该是不会有的。

那俄罗斯能不能熬下来呢? 先让我们看看前苏联是怎么瓦解的。前苏联瓦解有三个基本因素:能源价格暴跌,美苏军备竞赛,还有拖沓冗长的阿富汗战争。在这种前提下,前苏联撑了大概十年。首先现在没有军备竞赛,也没有类似阿富汗的战争。乌克兰相比阿富汗是好打很多的(由于地形决定)。能源由于刚才说的中国和欧洲暂时还离不开俄罗斯的油气,所以还不至于会被破产。要知道,人们的记忆是短暂的。历史上很少国家被制裁超过十年。记忆中的一个是伊朗。人家获得好好的。所以目前为止被制裁拖垮的大国还真没有。

那联合国安理会就这样让俄罗斯蒙混过去吗?常任理事国的身份还能留在吗?我个人觉得,如果联合国让一个常任理事国公然侵略另外一个主权国家,那已经表明这个理事会的职能已经失去了,联合国就沦为一个没有公信力的草包组织,慢慢被各国摒弃。最后我们所知道的联合国会瓦解成地区性的军事联盟。一个没有战争威胁力联合国是没有意义的。那都有什么军事联盟呢?还不是已美国为首的北约,五眼和美日韩吗?所以俄罗斯早就判断到联合国就是一个可有可无的东西。如果连真正拿枪荷弹的地痞流氓都不怕,还会怕联合国谴责?

所以很不幸,还真没有它什么辙。在不违法我前面列的三个基本原则的前提下,乌克兰恐怕是要归入俄罗斯版图的。但是这里有一个最大的未知数是普京本人的身体健康。目前看普京在本国的支持率还是超过60%。他69岁并不算高龄。至少还能玩十年。但是十年以后呢?眼下并没有一个像他那样的强人。如果普京挂了以后,俄罗斯内部出现政变动荡的可能性是很大的。西方国家可能会等待这个时刻的来临更靠谱一些。




Sunday, February 13, 2022

2022 乌俄局势分析

最近普京在乌俄边境聚集了将近13万兵力,外媒都在讨论普京是不是要攻打乌克兰。在这简单对局势做个分析。

核心问题:俄罗斯是否会侵略乌克兰?

要回答这个问题,首先要知道俄罗斯的核心利益是什么。乌克兰就是俄罗斯的台湾。就像中华民族的正统文化跑到了一个要闹分裂的台湾一样,乌克兰是斯拉夫文明的发祥地。拜占庭帝国时代,东斯拉夫人种基辅罗斯民族没落以后分成了乌克兰,俄罗斯和白俄罗斯三国。前苏联好几届书记都是来自于乌克兰。比较有名的是赫鲁晓夫,博涅日洛夫等。由于乌克兰地处东欧,比较靠近欧洲文明,俄罗斯人如果失去了乌克兰就是一个没有欧洲灵魂的游走于中亚草原和高加索山区的亚洲民族。这是他们文化认同感底线。

从地缘战略位置角度看,我以前的文章已经做过详细的分析。一个国家的安全感来自于它的天然地理屏障。俄罗斯的天然屏障是:北面常年冰封的北冰洋,东面无法跨越的西伯利亚平原,南面的高加索山脉,西面。。。西面是俄罗斯蛋痛的地方,一马平川到欧洲大平原波兰。唯一一个西边的地理屏障是喀尔巴仟山脉。但是那在东欧。所以对于俄罗斯国家安全来说,最理想的防线是把波兰-喀尔巴仟山脉一线全都归到自己势力范围内。无独有偶,这就是冷战期间前苏联阵型的版图。这条分界线,是俄罗斯的核心利益所在。

但是自从前苏联瓦解以后,这个核心利益一致被北约侵蚀。北约的东扩已经把俄罗斯的势力线一直推到家门口的波罗的海三国。乌克兰是最后剩下的防线了。乌俄之间是一马平川的。如果乌克兰加入了北约,加上波罗的海三国的北约军队,南北两面夹击,那俄罗斯很快就会被消灭。所以乌克兰是俄罗斯的仅存的核心利益中的核心。必须得抓在手里的。

为什么要选择现在攻打乌克兰呢?

首先乌克兰基辅政府不亲俄。2014年的内战差点把乌克兰倒向西方。为什么俄罗斯必须要拿下Crimea? 因为从Sevastopol北上是容易把乌克兰的黑海入口全都堵上的。那乌克兰就是一个没有海军力量的内陆国家。但是如果相反,乌克兰变成北约盟友,那黑海就被北约的了。俄罗斯黑海舰队想进入地中海都成问题,就更别说进大西洋了。另外最近有信息指出乌克兰有导弹计划。尽管俄罗斯的军事技术在乌之上,但是害怕万一北约的导弹安装在乌俄边境这就麻烦了。所以不听话的乌克兰是必须要惩罚的。

那俄罗斯是具体诉求是什么呢?长远看具体有三点:1. 北约军队撤离俄国边境;2.北约离开东欧国家;3. 北约不再为东欧提供核保护伞。就是回到冷战结束前的势力划分。短期看俄罗斯希望:1.乌克兰如果不是亲俄就的打烂,分裂成联邦制国家。把中央政府削弱的同时把亲俄的东乌扶植上台以实现远程控制。

那北约是否会保护被侵略的乌克兰呢?这就看站在北约的角度看利弊分析了。北约的最终目的并不是要侵略和瓦解俄罗斯,因为它知道它做不到。俄罗斯是核拥有国。一旦北约开始对莫斯科宣战,整个西欧马上夷为平地。这点是肯定的。那北约这些年来不停的东扩到俄罗斯的家门口是为什么呢?主要是为了:1. 军事威慑;2. 军情收集;3. 压缩你的外交空间和战略范围。但是在导弹为主的二十一世纪,你把战斗机挺在我家门口,和停在1000公里外没有任何区别。战争开始的头半分钟所以机场都早就被炸的粉碎了。飞机就是个摆设。所以对于北约来说,不断地靠近俄罗斯其实没有起到太多作用。正因为对俄罗斯发动全面热战的可能性极低,我个人认为北约拿没拿到乌克兰其实意义不大。反而,一旦北约拿下乌克兰就等于和俄罗斯宣战。所以乌克兰从军事上对北约是一个鸡肋。这个从2014年就看得很清楚了。那是乌克兰被亲俄分子内战打得稀巴烂,北约除了送武器送物资就啥都没有。

北约有一条规定,有战争进行这的国家是不可以进入北约的。因为一旦加入了北约,根据Article 5,一旦被打北约就会反击。这就是等于和俄罗斯宣战。根据上面的分析这是不可能发生的。

俄罗斯的底牌是什么?它的底气主要是来自于三点:1. 它的核武器存量; 2. 核弹头的投送能力(导弹技术); 3. 它的战略纵深。普京前段时间演示过超高音速导弹。哪怕莫斯科被打得稀巴烂,在西伯利亚还有巨大的二次核打击能力。基本上从地理上就已经证明,俄罗斯是一个打不死的国家。历史上拿破仑试过,希特勒试过。不光打不死,还是西欧帝王灭亡之处。F35隐形战斗机可以深入俄国境内炸掉导弹发射点吗?不行,战略纵深太长了,飞机没有那么长的航程。

北约的底牌又是什么?美国的军事技术核保护伞。但是要知道北约国是没有核武器的。它就只有F35战斗机。这些战斗机用了干嘛呢?是用在战争发生之前先毁灭地方重要战略资源的。可是先不说俄罗斯的地对空导弹S400之流传闻是可以看见F35。在导弹年代,航母和飞机机场都是被打的靶子。飞机飞得是没有导弹快的。

所以经以上分析,俄罗斯具有侵略乌克兰的理由,能力,以及战略优势。北约有保护乌克兰的理由,但是在不想和俄罗斯硬碰硬的前提下,乌克兰变成一个可有可无的鸡肋。