2022 乌俄局势分析

最近普京在乌俄边境聚集了将近13万兵力，外媒都在讨论普京是不是要攻打乌克兰。在这简单对局势做个分析。

核心问题：俄罗斯是否会侵略乌克兰？

要回答这个问题，首先要知道俄罗斯的核心利益是什么。乌克兰就是俄罗斯的台湾。就像中华民族的正统文化跑到了一个要闹分裂的台湾一样，乌克兰是斯拉夫文明的发祥地。拜占庭帝国时代，东斯拉夫人种基辅罗斯民族没落以后分成了乌克兰，俄罗斯和白俄罗斯三国。前苏联好几届书记都是来自于乌克兰。比较有名的是赫鲁晓夫，博涅日洛夫等。由于乌克兰地处东欧，比较靠近欧洲文明，俄罗斯人如果失去了乌克兰就是一个没有欧洲灵魂的游走于中亚草原和高加索山区的亚洲民族。这是他们文化认同感底线。

从地缘战略位置角度看，我以前的文章已经做过详细的分析。一个国家的安全感来自于它的天然地理屏障。俄罗斯的天然屏障是：北面常年冰封的北冰洋，东面无法跨越的西伯利亚平原，南面的高加索山脉，西面。。。西面是俄罗斯蛋痛的地方，一马平川到欧洲大平原波兰。唯一一个西边的地理屏障是喀尔巴仟山脉。但是那在东欧。所以对于俄罗斯国家安全来说，最理想的防线是把波兰-喀尔巴仟山脉一线全都归到自己势力范围内。无独有偶，这就是冷战期间前苏联阵型的版图。这条分界线，是俄罗斯的核心利益所在。

但是自从前苏联瓦解以后，这个核心利益一致被北约侵蚀。北约的东扩已经把俄罗斯的势力线一直推到家门口的波罗的海三国。乌克兰是最后剩下的防线了。乌俄之间是一马平川的。如果乌克兰加入了北约，加上波罗的海三国的北约军队，南北两面夹击，那俄罗斯很快就会被消灭。所以乌克兰是俄罗斯的仅存的核心利益中的核心。必须得抓在手里的。

为什么要选择现在攻打乌克兰呢？

首先乌克兰基辅政府不亲俄。2014年的内战差点把乌克兰倒向西方。为什么俄罗斯必须要拿下Crimea? 因为从Sevastopol北上是容易把乌克兰的黑海入口全都堵上的。那乌克兰就是一个没有海军力量的内陆国家。但是如果相反，乌克兰变成北约盟友，那黑海就被北约的了。俄罗斯黑海舰队想进入地中海都成问题，就更别说进大西洋了。另外最近有信息指出乌克兰有导弹计划。尽管俄罗斯的军事技术在乌之上，但是害怕万一北约的导弹安装在乌俄边境这就麻烦了。所以不听话的乌克兰是必须要惩罚的。

那俄罗斯是具体诉求是什么呢？长远看具体有三点：1. 北约军队撤离俄国边境；2.北约离开东欧国家；3. 北约不再为东欧提供核保护伞。就是回到冷战结束前的势力划分。短期看俄罗斯希望：1.乌克兰如果不是亲俄就的打烂，分裂成联邦制国家。把中央政府削弱的同时把亲俄的东乌扶植上台以实现远程控制。

那北约是否会保护被侵略的乌克兰呢？这就看站在北约的角度看利弊分析了。北约的最终目的并不是要侵略和瓦解俄罗斯，因为它知道它做不到。俄罗斯是核拥有国。一旦北约开始对莫斯科宣战，整个西欧马上夷为平地。这点是肯定的。那北约这些年来不停的东扩到俄罗斯的家门口是为什么呢？主要是为了：1. 军事威慑；2. 军情收集；3. 压缩你的外交空间和战略范围。但是在导弹为主的二十一世纪，你把战斗机挺在我家门口，和停在1000公里外没有任何区别。战争开始的头半分钟所以机场都早就被炸的粉碎了。飞机就是个摆设。所以对于北约来说，不断地靠近俄罗斯其实没有起到太多作用。正因为对俄罗斯发动全面热战的可能性极低，我个人认为北约拿没拿到乌克兰其实意义不大。反而，一旦北约拿下乌克兰就等于和俄罗斯宣战。所以乌克兰从军事上对北约是一个鸡肋。这个从2014年就看得很清楚了。那是乌克兰被亲俄分子内战打得稀巴烂，北约除了送武器送物资就啥都没有。

北约有一条规定，有战争进行这的国家是不可以进入北约的。因为一旦加入了北约，根据Article 5，一旦被打北约就会反击。这就是等于和俄罗斯宣战。根据上面的分析这是不可能发生的。

俄罗斯的底牌是什么？它的底气主要是来自于三点：1. 它的核武器存量； 2. 核弹头的投送能力（导弹技术）； 3. 它的战略纵深。普京前段时间演示过超高音速导弹。哪怕莫斯科被打得稀巴烂，在西伯利亚还有巨大的二次核打击能力。基本上从地理上就已经证明，俄罗斯是一个打不死的国家。历史上拿破仑试过，希特勒试过。不光打不死，还是西欧帝王灭亡之处。F35隐形战斗机可以深入俄国境内炸掉导弹发射点吗？不行，战略纵深太长了，飞机没有那么长的航程。

北约的底牌又是什么？美国的军事技术核保护伞。但是要知道北约国是没有核武器的。它就只有F35战斗机。这些战斗机用了干嘛呢？是用在战争发生之前先毁灭地方重要战略资源的。可是先不说俄罗斯的地对空导弹S400之流传闻是可以看见F35。在导弹年代，航母和飞机机场都是被打的靶子。飞机飞得是没有导弹快的。

所以经以上分析，俄罗斯具有侵略乌克兰的理由，能力，以及战略优势。北约有保护乌克兰的理由，但是在不想和俄罗斯硬碰硬的前提下，乌克兰变成一个可有可无的鸡肋。

巴尔干之魂 - 1

 花了一年的时间，终于读完了Robert Kaplan的成名作《巴尔干之魂》（英文名Balkan Ghosts)。由于中间断断续续的读，有的地方有点忘了。在读完第一遍以后，又花了一个礼拜时间重新翻了一遍，并用笔记整理了一下思路。光笔记就写了十几页。第二遍看完以后，把书合上，感觉把过去一千年的人类历史重演了一遍。

世界上没有一个地理位置，比巴尔干更能够浓缩激化文明的矛盾，历史的无情，以及人文的挣扎。当年读Sameul Huntington的《文明的冲突》时，就讲到世界的冲突线主要是文明和宗教的冲突。如果地壳的交界会产生地震，那巴尔干岛位为处于人类文明的最强的地震带上。

从地理角度上，巴尔干位于欧亚大陆的交界，也是传统的欧亚商道。横贯罗马尼亚的喀尔巴阡山脉和保加利亚的巴尔干山脉使这个地区成为自古文化交流和军事侵略的屏障。中亚的游牧民族和后来的奥托曼帝国对欧洲的进攻就被这些山脉挡住。同时他们的文明和宗教也止步于此。

从宗教的角度上，巴尔干处于三个宗教的交汇处：西方罗马天主教通过奥匈帝国的势力影响着克罗地亚；中间的前南斯拉夫国家，保加利亚还有希腊是东正教（东罗马帝国的后裔）；但是大部分巴尔干国家又曾经是奥托曼帝国的殖民地，所以伊斯兰教也深深地影响着当地很多地区。很多国家，像波斯尼亚-黑塞哥维那，像阿尔巴尼亚，像马赛东尼亚，都是好几个宗教族群混居的地方。无独有偶，也是火药味最强，冲突最严重的国家。

从人种族群角度上，这里最早有斯拉夫人，后来有罗马拉丁人。中亚的入侵带来了土耳其，突厥人。简直是个人类基因的一个大染缸。

在一个一个国家讲解之前，想先讲讲巴尔干地区的总体历史命脉。这样有助于随后了解后来的很多冲突的来源。巴尔干地区最早是在700BC在古希腊亚历山大帝国势力范围内。亚历山大大帝认为这是通商要道所以把它控制。所以希腊文化和语言是自古巴尔干地区的文明基础。在大概600BC-500BC，这个地区被波斯入侵。一直到200BC变成罗马帝国一部分。现在的罗马尼亚曾经是罗马帝国的一个分支。但是尽管罗马帝国的统治，希腊文化对这个地区的影响之巨大为日后的矛盾奠定了基础。巴尔干从这个时期起就是东西罗马教廷的分界线。

300BC左右基督教被罗马正式接纳为国教。后来的一千多年，罗马教廷控制着整个欧洲的文化和信任。但是由于巴尔干半岛受希腊文化影响多于罗马文化，它更亲和于东罗马教。1054AD，东西罗马教廷分裂，东罗马帝国变成后来的拜占庭帝国。巴尔干自然归到拜占庭的势力范围内。但是事情没有这么简单。在巴尔干西北的克罗地亚是罗马天主教，罗马尼亚是罗马拉丁裔。他们自然会跟拜占庭的邻国产生各种冲突和矛盾。

600AD附近巴尔干地区也出现各种外族的融入。主要有中欧和东欧的斯拉夫人，还有中亚的保加利亚突厥人，还有土耳其的突厥人。其中保加利亚人在巴尔干地区拓展势力，在700-1100AD建立了保加利亚帝国，曾经是欧洲最强大和先进的帝国。鼎盛时期包括了现在的阿尔巴尼亚一直到黑海，从喀尔巴阡山脉一直到爱琴海入海口。

然而从14世纪开始，巴尔干地区被土耳其奥托曼帝国占领。变成土耳其欧洲省。这个占领一直维持到第一次世界大战结束。想象一下，一个曾经是欧洲，古希腊的西方文化地区，被伊斯兰教的土耳其占领并融合六百多年。宗教的压迫，人种和民族的冲突都极端的集中在巴尔干这个地区。在这里，每个邻国之间都有芥蒂，每个民族之间都有仇恨。哪怕是同文同种的人，因为在不同帝国势力底下成长，结果被洗脑成仇人。人性的悲剧，在巴尔干的历史下渐显无遗。

Excerpts from The Frankfurt School Philosophy

The workers of the west, were sort of bewitched and beguiled when they saw all the cool new stuff humans are able to do now that capitalism is responsible for…the power of industry…increased levels of efficiency…the scientific and technological progress that capitalism produces…they’ve seen these changes, have been raised to believe that this stuff is the measure of progress and that this is just HOW the world is now and to not question it…all the while immersed in a system that from birth tells them they are first and foremost a worker and consumer, through media tells them how to act, think and feel, programs into them false needs, sells them one product after another to satisfy these false needs, socially alienates them, keeps them confused and scared, provides them with an illusion of political freedom and through many different types of coercion gets them never to question the fact that all of this rapid technological progress is only made possible by the exploitation of other human beings. In other words, the workers of the west no longer resemble the free-thinking proletariat that Marx talked about rising up…they’ve been indoctrinated to love their chains in a sense

Review of shoe reviewers

Just want to review all the shoe reviewers/channels that I follow on YouTube based on my personal preference, from the least to the most favorite. My scale is simple, if you can offer something unique, insightful, have the exact content that scratches my inner itch, you will be high on my scale. Again, this is entirely my opinion, not meant to be objective at all. 

Fordy Runs: this guy's British accent (I meant is he a Scot or something) is so strong that I couldn't figure out half of what he said. He seems to have a fetish on pink and his targeted demo is middle-aged intermediate runners. His reviews however are pretty empty.

RunLikeHeller: Boring. Same old jokes repeating every single time (the "good morning YouTube intro, the TrueToSize accent, the Pull tab joke). Her shoe review format is too templated and the content is predictable. She does answer question in comment pretty diligently so that is a plus.

GingerRunner: I want to say pretty boring too but his reviews are a bit more upbeat than the last one. His content needs some diversification.

FOD Runner: this guy is more of a runner than a shoe reviewer. He is more about picking the right shoe that fits His training block rather than just reviewing whatever shoes that people want to see from him. I like him. But more because of his running not his shoe reviews.

BelieveInTheRun: Robbe and Thomas duo is just hilarious. I don't care if they are talking about shoes or not (I mean if I seriously want to know I can read their written reviews) But just hearing them talking is a fun pastime. Meghan on the other hand is like a dead fish. They understand why people still want to watch YouTube on shoes these days, certainly not for tabulated specs.

SethJamesDemoor: to be honest his shoe reviews are meh. Not very informational and very predictable. His only preference is lightweight, lightweight, and lightweight. He would give a shoe an edge just because it is an oz lighter. That's why he keeps going back the VF1 for racing despite he was given dozen superb shoes to try for free. But I like his channel because his running is inspirational. This guy has four kids, runs 140 mpw and I am not sure if he (still) has a day job or not.

RoadTrialRun: this is the first review channel that I like entirely because of their reviews. More importantly, I prefer reading their full reviews rather than watching their videos (because no offense Sam is kind of boring when it comes to entertaining). But their multitester reviews are top notch. I especially like they include shoe comparison in their reviews which usually are what I often ponder about too.

InTheLongRun: this guy is an elite runner and his review is from a pro angle. I was super impressed watching his review on the Alphafly. Super detailed and technical and on point. I am an engineer myself so I like (and know) it when people know what they are talking about.

Kofuzi: another inspirational shoetuber. Religiously wake up at 4am, quit his lawyer/legal job to run the channel. His reviews are very personal but touch on a lot of topics that I am interested in and that's what I like about it even though I don't have to feel that same things that he feels. He always reads my mind of what I want to see on youtube, as if he has access to my search history. Whatever I was pondering, he either has a video on it already or he is making one next week. One drawback is though he used to do a lot of 100 mile reviews, but now I am seeing less and less. I guess as he is gaining popularity, more shoes are coming his way so he has less time per shoe. One thing I don't like about shoe reviews are they separated into first impression and long term reviews. I understand people want the first impression more because of the urge of buying new stuff. The shoetubers understand that too that's why we are seeing more and more first impression reviews and less and less long term reviews (or replaced by shorter term reviews) because few people care after the first impression.

EddBud: now the final, my favorite shoetuber. He is from UK too but I have no issue understanding him (what's up with that Fordy?). Edd has a great sense of humor. He is the only one pointing the negative in the Invincible while everyone else is praising it like a cult. His content is updated, on point, but without the feeling that he is rushing out content just to catch what wind is blowing out there.

The hyped, the workhorse, and the surprise: Comparison of Three Max Cushion Shoes

First off some basic stats: (US mens 8)

Endorphin Shift: 4mm drop, 10.3 Oz, 70 miles

Triumph 17: 8mm drop, 9.75 Oz, 450 miles

Nike Invincible: 9mm drop, 9.35 Oz, 15 miles

[Upper lockdown/comfort/fit] 

All three shoes have no issue locking down. I don’t have any heel slippage. The Triumph initial feels like slipping a bit but that is only a sensation due to the heel collar is very slick. I don’t feel that anymore after some running in it. In terms of step-in comfort, I would say Triumph > Shift ~ Invincible. The Triumph is very plush and soft. It screams comfort. Some people may find it too much shoe and it does feel warm in the summer. The Shift feels comfortable in the way that it fits better than the Triumph and has a better/snugger lock down. The breathability in the Shift is the best out of the three. The Invincible has a comfortable step-in too, but not quite as plush as the Triumph. The “flyknit” somehow feels stiffer than the engineered mesh on the Triumph, and certainly not as comfy as the Shift. I don’t want to comment on the style of Invincible as it hurts my eyes to look at it.

[Midsole Ride]

This is where the three shoes have distinctive characters. Because of the stack height, in none of these shoes you will feel the road at all. If I may try to describe the midsole in three different sub-categories, they would be the shock absorbing capability, the energy return and the rate of

the retu啪啪啪怕了怕了评论了啪啪啪0啪啪了老婆力量rn, and finally the sole geometry. 

First off, the shock absorption. This means the ability of the shoes to absorb impact on the road and shield your feet and joints from the pavement pounding. Softness or durometer is a good measure for this property. In my experience, while all of these three shoes provide good enough shock absorbing capability, the Invincible is clearly the softest one. So in this sub-category: Invincible > Triumph > Shift. That said, we all agree that softer is not always better. So the sweet spot of softness is a personal choice. I personally am not a big fan of a soft ride and find it working against my gait cycle. 

Secondly we come to the energy return, the most hyped up property of a running shoe midsole. There are many adjectives describing energy return, like bouncy, responsive, snappy, springy, or pingy. They are all very subjective descriptors based on personal sense. I want to boil down this characteristics into two simple measurable terms: the amount of energy returned, and the rate of the energy return, so that we can demystify things in a measurable way.  The former simply means how much energy that you put in comes back in your toe-off instead of dissipated as heat, and this can be measured roughly by heart rate effort; The latter is how fast the energy is returned in your toe off. Imagine two springs, upon the same impact loading, both return the same amount of energy but one does that faster than the other. If you have a foot pod, this can be measured as time elapsed between max compression to toe-off. I don’t have a foot pod so I can only provide comments based on my own experience.

For the energy return or saving, I did three longish runs, all around 11-12 miles, at similar heart rate of 140 bpm (this is my zone 2 HR). The one shoe that gives me the fastest pace should deliver the best energy return.

The result is: 

-Endorphin Shift: 8.08 min/mile

-Triumph 17: 8:23 min/mile

-Invincible: 8:21 min/mile

I don’t really feel which shoe give me a “fresher leg”. To me leg freshness is very subjective or ambiguous, and it involves not just the midsole, but also your fatigue level, and mostly your form. I understand the pace has lots of other factors. I made my best attempt to try to keep other factors equal. But take it with a grain of salt.  From this crude comparison the Shift has the best energy return. And the Triumph and Invincible is similar.

For the rate of return, Shift>Triumph > Invincible. The TPU foam in the Triumph has less compression/travel than the Invincible and it snaps right back while the Invincible decompresses leisurely. The Shift returns the fastest but it might feel too firm to some. To me it feels pleasantly firm. Different rates of energy return affect the peak paces which the shoe excels at, simply due to the fact that the natural frequencies of the materials resonate with different gait cadences. What that means is that the faster the rate of return is not always better if it doesn't match your pace/gait cycle. Imagine a foam that has instant energy return, i.e. It returns energy while you are still landing down so the returning force is out of phase with the work you put in. The best rate of return is the one in phase with your gait cycle, i.e. It pushes you up when you need it to. The Invincible while being uber soft and has good enough return, it feels not as snappy due to the sluggish decompression.

There is a very nice write up to demystify energy return of running shoes: The Truth About Energy Return in Your Shoes | Runner's World (runnersworld.com)

The last sub-category of midsole ride is the sole geometry. Here the result is Shift > Invincible ~ Triumph. The Shift is the only shoes in the bunch that has a meaningful rocker. I have a theory that a rocker shoe must have some rigid element in the sole in order for it to rock, otherwise it will simply compress and collapse instead of rolling forward. In plated shoes it is the plate that plays this role as the rigid guiding element. In the Shift it is the midsole itself. So I can understand why they make the Shift with a firmer midsole even for a daily trainer, it is precisely because of the need of the SpeedRoll geometry. Another point to note is that I don’t really mind the “firmness” of the Shift at all. First of all it doesn’t bother me. And it provides a quick energy return that it feels fast. In Feb-March I was suffering PF and it was the Shift that helped me run through it. So if it is soft enough for my PF foot, it is soft enough for the normal me. The fact the Shift surprisingly runs the fastest while being the heaviest of the three also tells me weight is an overrated spec that people fuzz too much about.

[Durability]

In this category, there is really no comparison. Triumph >> Shift >> Invincible. Why? Earlier I posted my AB test on my 450 mile Triumph  17 and it still looks (upper and outsole) and runs the same as a brand new pair. It is built like a tank. I can take it to all kinds of terrains without thinking about it. And we all know how fragile the ZoomX powered Invincible is from了 what has been posted here. ZoomX foam typically last 300-400 miles if not less, while the TPU foam arguably never dies. I suspect if I want to, I can take the Triumph to 800 miles. Did I mention that I bought it at $90? Incredible value as a workhorse long run shoe.

The Shift sits in the middle in terms of durability. It is also built like a tank (literally look at the heel armor). However its PWRRUN foam is less durable than the PWRRUN+ (TPU) foam, so I gave it a bit less score. But still no doubt that it can last 450+ miles and can take abuse. 

The Invincible, some has quoted that lasted 400+ mile but many have reported split or torn Zoom X with some twists and turns or simply hiking. I will need to baby this shoe since I spent $180 on it (two pairs worth of Triumph). Mine arrives brand new with some glueing defect on the outsole. 

[How would I use them]

Recovery from beaten up legs or injury: Invincible;

Long slow distance runs: Triumph > Invincible; (Triumph first because it is cheaper).

Long distance moderate-effort runs: Shift > Triumph. I need snap in this kind of runs. Babying my legs is not the priority. I need interaction and these two shoes give me that.

[Bottomline]

I would buy the Triumph 17 again and again without a heart beat. And probably would say the same for the Shift as well. The only thing I wish to improve on the Triumph 17 is to tone down the plushness on the upper to something like the Ride or Freedom but keep the midsole as is. The Shift I wish it can be priced at $130. At $150 I won’t buy it again especially considering the Axon is out there. 

I will not buy the Invincible again unless it: redesign the upper to make it look better and the price drops to $150 or less. And need to fix all the quality and durability issues found in this iteration. The only thing that keeps the Invincible in the comparison is the somewhat intriguing Novablast-like ride. While it is fun, it doesn’t return energy significantly more or faster than the other two shoes. It is what it is, a hyped up daily trainer. With this category of shoes my primary objective is to soak long miles, and to train aerobic endurance. So durability is high priority and mile/dollar is important and all three shoes discussed here are comfortable enough for this goal.

In this running shoe era, softness is somehow marketed and shoved down our throats as better. It is not always the case and it is certainly not true for everyone.

跑鞋评论 2020

 今晚和老婆一起跑完5英里以后，在strava上一看发现不知不觉今年跑了1000英里的里程碑。在圈里发帖庆祝之际，想回顾一下今年陪过我的所有亲密战友，我的跑鞋。

先简单讲讲跑鞋分几类。基本上有两大类：公路跑鞋(road running)和越野跑鞋(trail running)。对于大部分跑友来说我们关心的是第一类。公路鞋按照用途又分成三类：日常训练鞋(daily trainer), 速度训练鞋(tempo trainer)，还有比赛鞋(racing shoes)。它们的主要区别是重量，鞋底的舒适度和能量效率，还有就是耐久度。一下我会针对我今年穿过的每双鞋介绍一下它们的优缺点。排名从后到前。

第7位 (图一）：Brooks Ghost 12。这是我第一双严肃的专业跑鞋。当然那时候啥都不懂。当你啥都不懂的时候，买Brooks Ghost是肯定不会错的。因为这是一双专门为初学者设计的鞋。舒适度10分。尤其是把脚穿进去那一刻的感觉，紧紧但又很温柔得把你包住。脚底的midsole很软很舒服。对于当时刚入门的我，简直没想过原来跑鞋可以这么舒服。当然，现在回头看其实有点太软了。可惜这双鞋质量一般，跑了100多英里以后，脚底的泡沫出现裂痕。尽管我很喜欢，可是还是给退了。

第6位 (图二）：ASICS Novablast。把Brooks退了以后换了双Novablast。当时觉得想要一双max cushion的鞋。这双鞋在网上是rave review。很多YouTube大神都狂赞这鞋，说脚底极其有弹性，跟跳弹床一样。我上脚的第一感觉是，妈呀，这太软了吧。软到腿都站不直。说实在第一次跑的感觉非常不爽，感觉很费劲很浪费能量，因为太软太不稳定。后来过了30英里以后，基本上熟悉了它的脾气了以后，感觉还是一双蛮有意思的鞋。基本上用这鞋的时候配速就是比其他鞋快不少。可以说这是一双速度鞋但是又以舒适为主题。过了50英里以后我还是忍不住它的不稳定性，最后换成我最满意的鞋。

第5位 (图三）：Saucony Ride ISO 1。这是一双让我难忘的鞋。$60从REI打折入的。但是非常满意非常舒服。重量刚刚好作为daily trainer，9盎司。一般daily trainer都不能太轻因为否则不够耐用。最让我喜欢的是它的midsole, 有减震保护之余，却一点都不想novablast那么软。很responsive，一点都不费劲。看了鞋底不是越软越好的。这双鞋我穿到300英里以后因为慢慢失去弹性了就退役了。稍微有点遗憾。EVA泡沫材料就是有这个问题，很轻很有弹性，但是不能持久。

第4位 (图四）：Saucony Freedom ISO 2。从Nordstrom Rack打折$70入。TPU鞋底。TPU跟EVA最大的区别是重量和弹性。TPU稍微重，但是非常有弹性，能量损耗很低。真得就有穿了弹簧的感觉。当然，对于初学者来说，刚上脚的时候可能会觉得有点硬。因为它的鞋底比较薄，触底感比较强。但是稍微有经验的跑着都喜欢这种感觉，而不是盲目地追求cushion。我其实是到了100英里以后才开始慢慢喜欢这鞋。现在它是我速度跑和10公里以内的主力。

第3位 (图六）：Saucony Ride ISO 2。尝过上一代的甜头后，看见这个2019年model减到$60后秒入。如果你愿意等，大部分跑鞋第二年都会降到$60左右。但是只是维持很短一段时间就会卖光。比上一代更加fit和轻盈。更重要的是保留了我喜欢的midsole材料和跑感，没有像其他牌子那样再变软。另外外形比上一代好看了不少。脚面的透气度也改进了。在夏天跑也基本没有问题。如果我只能拥有一双鞋，我会选它。

第2位 (图七）：New Balance Beacon v1。这是一双速度王。重量才不到200克。脚底的midsole比较硬，一切开始很不适应(不太适合初学者)。经过30英里以后，我爱上了它的反应度和灵敏度。每次PR都是穿这双鞋刷的。而且是在你不知不觉中实现。它唯一的缺点是，脚底没有太多橡胶保护。这是它重量轻的原因。所以估计这鞋撑不过200英里。

第1位(图八）：Saucony Triumph 17。这就是我把Novablast退了以后换的鞋。爱爱爱这双鞋的脚底。它不是最轻，也不是最软，也不是最快。但是是最适合长跑（16公里以上）。它的感觉无法言表，就像踩着一根弹簧一样但是有非常敏捷。整个鞋体的做工上盛，用料到位。唯一缺点就是用料有点过了，可能会比较热。我反正是没有感觉。如果我只能拥有两双鞋，那就是Triump + Beacon。前者用来练长跑，后者用来练速度。

友情客串(图九) : Adidas Boston 9。这双鞋是买来收藏的。一直不舍得穿。这是阿迪为波马专门设计的冠名马拉松跑鞋。上面有2020年波马的标志。注意2020年是波马开创124年来第一次被取消的。所以我觉得这鞋非常有收藏价值。最有意思是它的鞋垫：上面写满了波士顿周边的地名。其实这些地名都是波马比赛路线经过的小镇。作为曾经在波士顿住过七年的我，特别有感觉。

地缘政治第二课 - 俄罗斯

喜欢阅读地缘政治的人，都听过20世纪英国地缘政治家Mackinder的一句名言：

“谁控制了东欧，谁就控制了心脏地带”；
“谁控制了心脏地带，谁就控制了世界岛”；
“谁控制了世界岛，谁就控制了世界”。

当时Mackinder并没有明说，但是他所指的世界岛，就是欧亚大陆。而他文中的“心脏地带”，指的是俄罗斯。Mackinder的理论认为心脏地带有得天独厚天然的自然屏障：北有北冰洋，南有高加索山，西有寒冷的西伯利亚。似乎无限的腹地使得这个心脏地带几乎是不可毁灭的。相反，沿海的海权国家靠的是快速的海路补给线，但是和无限的心脏地带腹地相比，海权国家的势力是有限的。这套理论奠定了陆权理论的基础。和19世纪Alfred Mahan的海权理论形成鲜明对比。

心脏地带唯一的缺口在东欧。

89年美苏冷战结束，两方决定允许东西德统一的一个重要谈判条件，是北约不可以扩展到德国以东的国家。无独有偶，二战刚开始的时候，希特勒第一个占领的国家是波兰。为什么德国/波兰这个国家这么重要呢？他们的战略意义是什么呢？看看我手画的地图就知道。欧洲大陆基本西北-东南走向的被喀尔巴阡山脉分成两半。山脉以东是一马平川的东欧平原。盟军一旦穿过这个山脉，坦克车是可以直达莫斯科的。但是这个山脉显然是陆军不可逾越的。然而这个山脉停在了波兰。所以波兰是对俄罗斯（或者俄罗斯的敌人）至关重要的战略口。守住了波兰，就守住了俄罗斯。一旦波兰失守了，盟军的战略前线马上就可以拉成上千公里，想守都守不住。如果我是普京，晚上睡觉都会被波兰的风吹草动给弄醒。自古以来的战略家都看见这个地理位置的重要性。

俄罗斯的唯一选择就是不断的把国界以远离莫斯科的方向扩充。南边扩展到中亚，东欧基本是它的底线。90年代克林顿开始的北约东扩违背了当年德国统一的诺言。俄罗斯人觉得被背叛了，发现西方民主只是面纱，背后藏着的，还是几百年不变的罗马天主教征服者的灵魂。这就是普京的民意基础。

战斗民族的钢铁是怎么炼成的呢？寒冷的天气，和无限的平原。自古以来俄罗斯就四面是敌。中亚的突厥，南部的拜占庭，西边的拿破仑和普鲁士。当你的国家永恒的生活在危机赶感的时候，只有中央集权的政治制度能够适用。地理条件决定政治制度。

俄罗斯最想要的是一个温水港。看地图就清楚，俄罗斯的最直接入海港是波罗的海还有黑海。但是前者不是不冻港。后者要经过被北约的土耳其和英国的直布罗陀控制的海峡才能到大西洋。这样的海军在战争时期是没用的。有人说苏联之所以陷进阿富汗的泥潭，是为了印度洋的出海口。这个理论有一定基础，但是阿富汗并不靠海，只是通向印度洋之路的必经之路。这似乎可以解释为什么阿富汗被称为大国的坟墓。

二十一世纪的俄罗斯都有什么远景目标呢。北约的战斗机就停在离莫斯科航程20分钟的机场。高加索山的吉尔吉亚和大部分东欧平原上的国家加入北约。乌克兰，这个唯一一个在欧洲大陆上的正统俄语国家正在倒向西方。离开了乌克兰，俄罗斯就再也没有神圣罗马帝国的历史命脉，就变回一个亚洲大陆上野蛮民族了。所以乌克兰不光是俄罗斯的军事重地，武器中心，更是文化灵魂。如果说今天俄罗斯人还觉得自己是欧洲人的话，明天乌克兰倒戈了以后，俄罗斯人就要重新审视自己的历史地理身份了。总得来说，俄罗斯可以打的牌越来越少，但是仅剩的几张牌都是核武性的。