What did Karl Marx get right about capitalism?

Marxism still holds its ground on several key points about Capitalism. My Top Ten Takeaways from Karl Marx, Friedrich Engels, and Vladimir Lenin:

1. Capitalism is the most dynamic and productive form of collective wealth creation known to man. “Constant revolutionizing of production, uninterrupted disturbance of all social conditions, everlasting uncertainty and agitation distinguish the bourgeois epoch from all earlier ones… All that is solid melts into air, all that is holy is profaned, and man is at last compelled to face with sober senses, his real conditions of life, and his relations with his kind.” (~Karl Marx)
2. Inequality is a necessary product of Capitalism. It also is the driving force of competition. The highest, most coveted prize is a lasting, sustainable unfair advantage, an eternal fountainhead of individual wealth.
3. At the same time, inequality is a double-edged sword. Too much inequality necessarily leads to wealth destruction.
4. Private property on the means of production is the prerequisite for sustained innovation and entrepreneurship. The estrangement of individuals from the means of production (proletarianization) hampers their interest in development and leads to stagnation.
5. Power follows sources of wealth, not the other way around.
6. The key to a deep understanding of society lies in property relationships, economic dependencies, money flows, and wealth creation.
7. Gender patterns are shaped by economic power.
8. Politics, whatever the banners say, is always about (re)distribution of wealth. “People always will be the foolish victims of deception and self-deception in politics, until they have learned to seek out the interests of some class or other behind all moral, religious, political and social phrases, declarations and promises.” (~ Lenin)
9. The State is nothing else but a monopoly agent of violence outsourced by the most organized—but not always most wealthy—groups. Everything else is just add-ons, bells, and whistles attached to that essential core.
10. Ideologies and religions are necessary superstructures cementing a consensus between certain social and ethnic groups about their common economic interests

香港事件九月总结

香港反送中事件发展到如今已经三个多月。该发表一下评论了。

1. 从一开始我就认为，但是很多人反对，香港这次事件之所以能发展到今天这个程度，有两个内因。第一个是内在矛盾，就是经济分配极其不均。但是这个只是内在矛盾，绝对并不是根源。因为很多城市都有分配不均的问题，但是没有发展成暴动。第二点才是根本原因，这也是香港这次暴动能够激发成今日程度的深层原因，就是大部分香港人内心深处的种族仇恨。这个东西说浅是对大陆一切的蔑视，说深了是对中华民族这个身份从内心里的否定。如果光有第一个内在矛盾，我肯定不会发展成今天的程度，而且要示威也应该是冲着权力阶级。正是因为内心存在仇恨和歧视，才容易被煽动极端化，并且反对一切形式的和中国进行融合。

2. 有没有外国势力支持？ 这个用脚想想都应该知道。还不知道的人麻烦看看新闻最近世界舞台上都在进行什么大事。如果还是不知道的话，那您最好还是换台看韩剧算了。

3. 这次示威事件中暴露了两个缺口。一个是外籍法官问题；另一个是教育问题。外籍法官是个双刃剑。有人说如果深圳上海给予同样的关税金融政策就能取代香港，我认为不可以。人才还是其次（大陆人才还是有的）。关键是中国大陆缺乏外资能信得过的司法机关。说的不好听可以随时冻结财产。外籍法官的存在保住了香港的核心竞争力-独立（于中共）的司法。注意，这里讨论的不是这个施法的公正性。这里讲的是其独立性。

教育问题。很多人讨论香港的通识教材。其实更应该讨论香港的教育人员。香港教材缺乏爱国主义教育。试过了，人家说这是洗脑。但是这个“洗脑”是必要的。你要是不洗，他们的脑袋就被西方媒体洗。在中国软实力基本为零的前提下，不洗脑等于铸就了今天的示威者。但是怎么洗，要洗多久？我觉得最起码要二三十年事件。

4. 香港的未来是怎样: Who cares?

Seriously, 通过这次事件，中共清楚的认识到香港这个孩子“养不熟”。地位从以前的opportunity(机遇)变成liability(风险)。不好好做好联系世界的桥梁，反而跟西方一起搞屎棍。要教好这种“孩子”就一个办法，把它的优越感收回来。

我会预言香港金融中心的地位短期内还不至于被取代，但是中央会用政策倾斜于深圳和上海，给以把总部和结算放在内地的外资更多优惠。而同时，香港人会继续着他们高企的房价，拿着滞涨的工资，抢着不断减少的就业岗位，拦着不断萎缩的金融业，做着他们的民主梦。

等梦醒了以后就会发现，东方之珠已不再。

地缘政治第一课: 中国

人类自从有历史以来，就是跟自然界互相斗争的故事。地缘政治的核心概念是:国家自身以及周边的地理环境，决定了她的生活习性，文化，战争，甚至政治体系。这一系列博文是笔者在对地缘政治的阅读过程中写下来的领会，放在这里跟读者分享。

很多地理学家和战略家分析过世界主要的文明和强国。他们都有共同的特点:地缘条件极佳。对于一个国家而言，理想的地缘条件有以下几点：

1. 拥有天然防卫屏障；

2. 在国家的腹地，有足够可以耕作的土地，以及适宜农业的气候；

3. 腹地里有可畅通的水路或者交通；

4. 腹地最好被一圈缓冲区或自然屏障包围；

5. 有漫长的海岸线和良好的港口。

既然这是这系列的第一课，我们必须现在自己的国家，中国，开始说起。

中国作为一个有人居住的地理概念，是从大约5千年前开始。最初的文明开始于黄河流域花呗平原一带。经常发大水的黄河留下的肥沃土地，为最早期的文明提供了农业和定居的机会。知道今天，中国的腹地，依然是围绕着五千年前就定下来那个圈(见地图（1，腹地））。这个腹地主要是由降雨量决定。在腹地里的降雨量充足，可以务农。出了这个圈降雨量太少不够耕作，所以人口密度下降。中华文明核心，大部分都是在这个降雨圈里发生。秦始皇最早统一六国的地图，大概就是今天的腹地。

作为中国的腹地，她具备几个明显的战略弱点。首先，中国的腹地四周大都是平原（除了西藏）。背面是蒙古，东北是满洲里，西北是新疆。缺乏天然保护屏障，使得腹地常年收到外族入侵和骚扰。中国几千年来的历史，可以总结为周期性的对抗从这些平原草原入侵的游牧民族的历史。这些游牧民族的进攻路线在地图上标为（2, 3）。为了保住腹地，中国必须要把边界尽量往外推移，把尽可能多的新疆、蒙古、满洲等地区包括在版图里作为战略缓冲区。可以设想，如果新疆落在敌方手上，大规模进军中原腹地是很容易的。

中国腹地的另外一个弱点是西藏。西藏有两个重要地理意义。首先喜马拉雅山是个战略上不可逾越的壁垒。任何国家占领了这个壁垒，在壁垒另外一边的国家可以说是不可能过来的。这解释了中国印度为什么一直互相敌视但是从来没有发生大规模战争的原因。但是如果印度占领了西藏，那么从西藏进攻中原却是有居高临下的优势。西藏的另外一个重要意义是她是中国的水源。黄河，长江都是源于西藏。一个国家想控制自己的命运，必须控制自己的水源。综上原因，西藏对中国的腹地有着至关重要的地缘意义。 所以可以理解自古以来中国就认为西藏是必争之地。51年刚建国不久，解放军就把西藏给拿回来了，可想而知其重要性。

现在大家应该理解为什么西方国家老鼓吹新疆和西藏独立。就是因为它们的重要战略意义。

相比之下，蒙古草原曾经是中国最大的缺口。这就是为什么长城一开始就是冲着蒙古建，就是为了防蒙古。但是相比西藏和新疆，现在它的地缘意义已经不是那么重要了。主要因为敌从蒙古进攻可能性和成功率很低。蒙古和中国之间是戈壁沙漠，北面是西伯利亚。要从蒙古大规模进攻，需要很长的补给线。这个显然做不到。

在当今中国，其实最大战略缺口是东北亚，也就是朝鲜半岛。因为敌军可以从朝鲜长驱直达北京。所以中国必须要在朝鲜半岛布置缓冲区。于是有了北朝鲜。很多人以为中国当年为了讨好斯大林才打朝鲜战争，其实是为了自己的利益打的。

把西藏，新疆管好，把东北亚缓冲区守好，中国基本就是保住了腹地，并且留有足够的战略纵深。但是当今中国还有两个弱点。首先70%的能源来之中东，并且经过马六甲海峡和南中国海。另外日本台湾和菲律宾连成所谓的“第一岛链”把中国海军封死在太平洋以外。战争时期这是极其危险的。二战的时候苏联之所以打败德国，美国打败日本，其实主要靠的是能源物资的封锁。战时，美国及盟友只要把马六甲一封，把第一岛链一锁，中国就断油，断矿甚至断粮。所以要想控制自己的资源和海外利益，中国必须具备自由进出太平洋和印度洋的蓝水海军。也就是平常说的“打破第一岛链”。这个通过近年的反舰导弹射程慢慢超过美军舰载机航程做到了。在16世纪之前，中国最头痛的是陆上的边界。这就是为什么郑和比哥伦布还早到非洲，却没有开展欧洲式的殖民掠夺的原因。因为那时候中国真的不是很稀罕。16世纪以后，中国开始担心海上的敌人了。边界越长，邻国越多的锅盖架，受到战争的威胁越多。这是被历史不断证明的规律。正因为长期在外族入侵的危险下生存，中国选择中央集权作为自己的政治制度，这不是个偶然。下一课我们会看见，另外一个熟悉的国家，俄罗斯，也是因为长期被侵略而不的不选择集权制度。

Hong Kong's Enemy

Hong Kong has a population of 7 million and GDP per capita of ~ $50,000. So a rich big city. Well,

Denmark has 5 million people, one of the most productive agriculture industry in Europe, Maersk the biggest international shipping company, Novo Nordisk one of the top pharmaceutical companies in the world…

Sweden has 10 million people, Volvo the car company, Ericsson the telecom company, H&M the clothing retailer, Electrolux the home appliance company, IKEA the furniture company…

What about Hong Kong? Hong Kong doesn’t have a single world-class company. Not a single one, despite of its fantastic wealth. Handed over to the British since 1842, so almost 180 years where the local tycoons get to play in the sandbox. What has Hong Kong done with all its money? Which Hong Kong company has made it big worldwide? OK, so you can argue that Hong Kong is too crowded. Well Tokyo is also terribly crowded - so they became the world’s leader at Miniaturization. Small, high-quality, efficient. That’s what led to Sony and Toyota. Why couldn’t Hong Kong do this?

Hong Kong does not have the “economic DNA” for those things. You need to learn how Hong Kong really made its money. Hong Kong started it’s “industrialization” as an Opium Den. Jardine Matheson was the opium-runner https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hi..., and HSBC was the bank that financed the opium trade. Almost all Hong Kong tycoons are in real estate, where you take a monopoly on the land, and extract exorbitant rent from people for no work. Hong Kong’s Richest People Movie-making in the Great Britain involves 50-year-old Dames with serious acting skills. Movie-making in Hong Kong is mostly money-laundering for the tycoons, and publicity for the tycoons’ 20-year-old mistresses and/or their third wives.

In 1997 Hong Kong was handed over to PRC. To boost Hong Kong economy and promote integration, China signed a CEPA (Closer Economic Partnership Agreement) with Hong Kong in 2003, basically gave preferential status to trade through Hong Kong. Mainland and Hong Kong Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement This agreement was promptly turned into a tax loophole by the Hong Kong lawyers. Goods worth $1 is exported from the Mainland to Hong Kong at $1, so you don’t pay China taxes because no profit is made. Then the goods is exported from Hong Kong to the rest of the world for $10, and you don’t pay Hong Kong taxes either, because no “work” has been done in Hong Kong. Up to a quarter of Mainlands goods get to route through Hong Kong to evade tax. Trillions of dollars route through Hong Kong for money laundering. If you do it, you’ll be called a “criminal” and end up in jail. If the tycoons do it with their companies, it’s called “providing legal/financial services” and ended up being a large chunk of Hong Kong’s GDP.

In a word, Hong Kong was and is all about money-laundering.

Hong Kong is not without opportunities to develop a real economy, but misses too many opportunities.

In the millennium, when there was a shift in manufacturing and entrepot trade, Hong Kong received several proposals for transformation.

In 1999, Tung Chee-hwa proposed the "Digital Cyberport" project to develop Internet technology.

We stand at that crossroad and look at the world around us. Google was just born in a private garage in California. It is far from being listed giant then. Facebook and Twitter were still unknown. China’s Alibaba and Tencent were just small gangs of 10 people. Ma Yun was not a "dad", he was just an ugly young man.

At that time, Hong Kong had the software skills, technology, talent, and capital, which of these were not stronger than that in the mainland?

However, the Internet was not taken up, and the Cyberport was turned into real estate development.

Later, Tung proposed the "Dangang" plan. Taiwan’s Zhang Yujing of TSMC, wanted to make chip manufacturing in Hong Kong. The people of Hong Kong resolutely opposed it by "speculating the land and speculating the price of the property" and engaged in a protest [against Article 23 of Basic Law]. As a result, Shanghai invited Zhang Yujing to take a SMIC in Shanghai. It is now the largest chip manufacturer in China and the fourth in the world.

Later, Tung once again proposed the "Chinese Medicine Port" plan because Hong Kong has a strong scientific research system, as well as a large number of biological researchers and more importantly it has a quality inspection system recognized by the whole world. This proposal is a combination of production, education and research. However, again because of the short-sightedness of the city’s capitalists, Tung’s proposal was not adopted.

As a result, the Huada Gene appeared in Shenzhen across the river, and it has become a world-class genetic and biological research enterprise.

From 1999 to 2005, if Hong Kong seized these three opportunities, Hong Kong would be the Asian Internet center, chip manufacturing center, and biological research center.

In those years, what was Hong Kong busy with?

The economy took a turn and Hong Kong turned to "financial, real estate, and service industries." These industries went sky-high and housing prices skyrocketed. The so-called free financial trading port has brought a lot of hot money across the border. These capital hot money boosted Hong Kong economy.

Today, the enemy of the Hong Kong economy is inside Hong Kong, amongst those financial oligarchs.

The financial profits have made Hong Kong rich but also spoiled Hong Kong. The short-sightedness and profit-seeking of capitalists have made Hong Kong miss the best 10 years.

Hong Kong is left with financing center for listing but Hong Kong is not the only choice [for such service]. Shanghai and Shenzhen could replace Hong Kong.

"Democracy" shaped itself into an isolated golden bell [cast-iron shield], and when Hong Kong looked at the rising small fishing village on the other side of the river, began to panic, then stupidly blame the government, blame the chief executive, blame the Li [Ka-shing] family, blame the return of Hong Kong to China. Everything was some else’s fault.

Ignoring the opportunity of huge market of 70 trillion yuan, [Hong Kong youth] took to the streets, playing "politic is right." It’s pitiful and pathetic!

The formerly closed ignorant Mainland China has becomes open and inclusive; Hong Kong, which was open to freedom in the past, has become ignorant and closed.

In just a few decades, history has played us the biggest joke.

Hong Kong people ~ have you woken up yet?

Hong Kong's Poisoned Chalice

https://www.quora.com/q/armchair-generals/Hong-Kong-s-Poisoned-Chalice?ch=99&share=5b27f145&srid=uJxwr

America’s biggest economic problem isn’t China 

https://www.quora.com/q/armchair-generals/America-s-biggest-economic-problem-isn-t-China?ch=99&share=b9a01fa5&srid=uJxwr

广场协议

《广场协议》根本就不是大家在瞎传的那么一回事，在这里简单地先把广场协议到 底是怎么一回事讲一下。

请不要吃惊，《广场协议》不是美国人逼着日本人签的，甚至都不是美国人主导的，《 广场协议》是日本人发起的。

《广场协议》是1985年9月美国、日本、西德、英国和法国的财长和央行行长在纽约的 广场饭店达成的五国政府联合干预外汇市场，有秩序地诱导美元对主要货币的汇率贬值 ，以解决美国存在的巨额贸易赤字问题的协议。

现在美国每年赤字达到了1万亿美元以上的水平，可当时不是这样，1980年美国贸易收 支赤字260亿美元，但贸易外收支有很大的黑字，统算下来还有20亿美元的国际收支黑 字。但在随后的1980年-1985年间，贸易赤字不断扩大，贸易外黑字幅度又在不断减少 ，1984年的国际收支出现了1020亿美元的赤字，而且估计到1985年可能会出现1400亿美 元的赤字。

一般说来，日本人是绝对反对日元升值的，但凡事都会有例外。那个时候有些日本人开 始认为美元过于坚挺，需要加以一定的调整。

最早公开提出这个设想的是日本大藏省财务官的细见卓。

细见卓从布雷顿森林体系破产之后十年日本所走过的道路中得出了这么几个结论：

首先，日元升值不像传媒或者政治家所说的那么恐怖；再者，日元汇率到底在怎么个水 平上才算合适这个问题的回答众说纷纭，没个准头；所以日本人应该抛弃对于汇率的迷 信，更加主动地接受更高的日元汇率，更加积极地投入到国际经济活动之中，找出一条 和世界经济共同繁荣的道路才是正经，成天扯汇率的淡不能解决任何问题。

细见卓当时是AF会的成员，所谓AF就是Advisory Friends（顾问友人）的意思，这是一 个中曾根康弘的私人智库，领头的就是原昭和三大参谋之一的伊藤忠董事长濑岛龙三， 中曾根政权的几乎所有政策最早都出自这个机构。

大约是在中曾根政权刚诞生的1982年年底，细见卓就向中曾根递交了一份很详细的有关 日元汇率的报告。这份报告认为日本的贸易出超实在太大，政府决不能坐视不管，日本 政府应该主动出击，和美国联合起来提高日元汇率之后将其稳定下来，否则日本在国际 社会上将永远是一个最好的打击对象。

中曾根康弘，这位现在还活着的日本前首相是广场协议的积极策划者

日元到底涨多少才合适，细见也没底：“估计也就一成左右，不会超过两成，肯定在日 本企业能够消化的范围内，这是一